Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr on Friday renewed for another six months the cease-fire keeping his Mahdi Army militia in check. (Associated Press, 2/22/2008)
For several weeks there has been speculation that Sadr would not continue the cease-fire, credited by Gen. David Petraeus with contributing to a reduction of violence in Baghdad.
The Iraqi parliament continues to be bogged down in factional in-fighting, which prevents any meaningful advance in legislation.
The Turkish military sent ground troops into Northern Iraq Thursday night in an effort to quell Kurdish militants – the first such incursion since the U.S. invaded Iraq. (New York Times, 2/22/2008, LINK)
The move, Turkey claims, is an attempt to prevent the militants – the Kurdistan Worker’s Party – from entering Turkey and attacking troops there.
This, of course, pits two U.S. allies against each other. (I was shocked to hear a Fox News report Saturday that the U.S. considers the Kurdish militants “terrorists.”)
While conservatives continue to claim “the surge is working,” U.S. troops and Iraqi civilians continue to die. We are just 28 troop deaths short of 4,000 American sons and daughters dying in Iraq. The strategic situation can only be called a quagmire.
Is the United States, then, putting too many eggs in the Sadr basket?
“Sadr,” according to The Progress Report, Center for American Progress, 2/22/2008, “has felt pressure from rank and file members of his Mahdi Army, who equate the cease-fire ‘with a loss of power and resources, believe the U.S. and ISCI* are conspiring to weaken the movement and eagerly await Muqtada's permission to resume the fight.’ “ (*BJ note: the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq – ISCI – is the largest and most powerful Shiite party in Iraq.)
What, then, is Sadr up to?
The Progress Report continues: “But, Vali Nasr, author of The Shi’a Revival, believes Sadr has a long-term strategy. ‘The game in Iraq is not over,’ says Nasr. ‘[Sadr] has been beefing up his strength.’
“Sadr has also been pumping up his religious credentials, studying in the Iranian seminary city of Qom in order to become a recognized religious authority. Once he achieves a higher clerical rank, Sadr will be more able to credibly challenge the Najaf establishment for leadership of Iraq."
Call it a “surge.” Call it a “success.” A quagmire by any other name is still a quagmire.
For more on the current strategical situation in Iraq, read the Progress Report’s “Iraq: A Precarious Situation,” LINK
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
2 comments:
Frodo, absent proof, avoids speculation on motivation. You have however, put your finger on the crux of the quagmire.
Sadr and Maliki are friends. Sadr and Maliki both detest the sight of Sunnis. Sunnis are the guys who used to be in power, then became "insurgents" against Maliki's government. The Sunnis became "good guys" when they stopped attacking Maliki and defended themselves against the foreign terrorists. Americans, desperate for good news, think this is good.
Sadr was smart enough to let others do his fighting for him, and to gain strength both for himself, and for his buddy, Maliki.
In time, Sadr and Maliki will have all that they need. The Shiite Iranians will be next door in support, absent American regard for the Sunni minority. Both the government and the clerical institutions will reflect that fact.
The future of a Sunni in Iraq is not worth the proverbial plugged nickel. Bill Kristol will have to find some other self-aggrandizing excuse, and George Bush will have to get sober. What is it Louis XV had to say?
Great comment and great link. I had given up trying to figure out What was going on. Part of that comes from the huge kind of smokescreen of info we see that's about smaller more random details. E
Post a Comment