Up close & personal

Some observations from a South Carolina friend. Thank you, sir!

BJ,

Here's my quick take on the SC primary. Obama won, as I expected. His margin was a little surprising, though not much.

What has amazed me is how little the political commentators understand what happened or what the Clintons intended.

Why do they think Bill Clinton, Chelsea, et al, and Hillary herself spent so much time in South Carolina the past month? Bill Clinton knew that Hillary wasn't going to win South Carolina. Blacks, after a moment's hesitation, were going to vote for Obama regardless. Why, then, would they waste all that time and energy here?

It was a well-calculated strategic decision. After what happened in New Hampshire, Clinton (or the Clintons) guessed (rightly) that the Obama camp would fear the same sort of "comeback" here. They were right. Obama spent, what, 16 straight days "shoring up" his base in SC and spending capital needlessly on statewide ads, Bill and Chelsea "engaged the enemy" and took potshots at his campaign here, there, and everywhere across the state, while Hillary was off tending fences and bridges in the delegate-rich states, where the black vote won't count so much, preparing for the showdown on Feb. 5. She made it back to South Carolina just enough times to keep Obama's eyes off her real target -- the delegate counts around the corner. It was "Bill Clinton thinking" at its best, riskiest, and most ingenious. The Obama camp took the bait.

Sadly, it also involved having to "toss out there," plant the seed among the Democratic faithful, that while Obama is an extraordinarily articulate orator and a sharp thinker to boot, his very lack of experience and ideas battle-tested in the real world is just not going to allow him to be elected president this time around. When it gets down to it, America is not going to elect an untested, personable black man over what the Republicans will bring to the table. He'll be president some day, if he lives and keeps out of trouble, but I just don't think the stars are his this year.

Two personal observations:

I heard Obama at Clemson (University) Friday and was surprised at how devoid of details he seems to be on the stump. It may have been that he was just tired, but he sounded as if he were doing little more than sloganeering. He also seemed to be promising, primarily, to throw money at most problems facing the American people. On camera, close-up, giving a victory speech, nobody is better since JFK and RFK, but working a big crowd, he is, or was, something of a dud to my way of thinking.

I had the pleasure of a chance meeting with Hillary the day before, at the Anderson Civic Center, just after her hour-long presentation. She was animated, fresh, looked great, gave detail after detail without boring even for a second, is somewhat taller and thinner than I expected, is obviously a consummate pro on the stump. I was standing in line as she was walking by, shook her hand, and while doing so mentioned that Herb Jackson is a fraternity brother of mine (Herb married Laura Grosch, one of her college suitemates) and that Vince Foster and I roomed almost door-to-door at Davidson a couple of years. It probably gave her a minute of respite. She asked for my name, said that she had just gotten a card from Laura and that "Can you believe it, Herb's now a grandfather," and mentioned that "You know, Vince was one of my very dearest friends" before passing on by. I hadn't met her before, but she was charismatic and down-to-earth, "reachable," all at the same time. I was frankly surprised at my reaction to her because two months ago I was saying that I just don't think she's electable -- Americans are tired of dynastic voting and dynastic presidencies.

The Democratic nomination process is a Preakness, not a Kentucky Derby. I just don't see Obama having the legs this time. I think it will be a close race, with Edwards causing some oddities early on, but eventually either endorsing Obama or else holding onto his delegates in an attempt to get something from the eventual nominee -- attorney general, Supreme Court, something.

I think Hillary wins it. Just has too many chits to cash in. I don't think the Kennedy endorsements do much. They're still just sore Bill Clinton stole their throne. Hillary is going to lose some of the black vote, maybe a lot of it in that they may decide to stay home, but I think she'll make up for that with Latinos. She'll probably name (Gov. Bill) Richardson her VP if his dirty laundry stays in the basket. If you don't think the Republicans are scared silly about Hillary, tune in to Limbaugh and Hannity and listen to how they're pumping up Obama.

I think McCain will win, but not by much over Romney, and will then name (Sen. Lindsey O.) Graham his VP. Fred Thompson may be a better choice, but he may have blown it by his take it or leave it attitude. Barring something totally unforeseen happening, I think Clinton/Richardson beats McCain/Graham in a closer race than would be expected -- but, then, what do I know?

Didn't mean to go on so. Politics doesn't ordinarily interest me so, but this is an unusual year.

Take care.

Winnie S.