South Carolina GOP primary

This state is proud of its heritage as one of the 13 original colonies and of its role in every war since. Its people are an intriguing mixture: from Upstate mill workers to military installation personnel, from Low Country aristocracy to Gullah-speaking basketweavers.

Tomorrow Republicans in the state will cast their primary votes, followed by the Democratic Primary on Saturday, 26 January.

In my opinion, these two primaries will be a watershed in the 2008 presidential campaign as they will reflect the mood of the South – the so-called “Bible Belt.”

Today, I’ll offer thoughts on the top three GOP contenders and will comment on Democratic hopefuls next Friday.

John McCain has received endorsements from some of the state’s leading newspapers. After a quarter-century on Capitol Hill, McCain, I believe, is being viewed as “Mr. Grand Old Party.” In a state which has long revered the military, he has deep respect for his sacrifices as a POW in Vietnam. Some South Carolinians might desire to make amends for what happened to McCain here in 2000, when, it is generally accepted, personal attacks by the Bush camp derailed his candidacy. Despite endorsements by some of the state’s leading Republicans, including Sen. Lindsey O. Graham, in the end McCain’s age, his maverick positions on hot-button issues such as immigration reform and his hawkish stance on Iraq might be factors of defeat. Certainly, anyone who viewed his New Hampshire acceptance speech would question his stamina for a possible eight-year presidency. McCain portrays himself as “Mr. Nice Guy.” He wants to be viewed as “Everyman.” So, why don’t I trust him? I believe he will be the S.C. runner-up.

Mitt Romeny will be the primary’s also-ran. I’m convinced any attempted man-on-the-street interview of many South Carolinians would yield the question, “Who?” Of course, primary voters are more dedicated to the process and more savvy, which is precisely why they might reject Romney.

I predict Mike Huckabee will carry this state, where there are more Southern Baptists, evangelicals and fundamentalists than palmetto trees. These are the people who voted for George W. Bush, because “he’s a good Christian man,” and their strength in numbers cannot be discounted. Never underestimate the church-driven mobilization of citizens with a cause – it worked during the civil rights movement, and it worked in 2004. Lest you forget, in 2004, with our troops at war on two fronts, exit polls showed the issue of most concern to voters was “moral values.”

Sure, there’s the “economy, stupid.” There’s war and homeland security. These and all other issues important to Americans might be trumped by people hell-bent to take this country back for God.

Stay tuned …

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